October 8, 2016

Sportsbook

The official NEW Sweet Science Sportsbook will be for numbered events. We will perform a thorough analysis and give you our best plays and values. We don’t pick every fight. We pick the best of the best. Remember, more time and effort go into the numbered events. We will still post the others because we are degenerate gamblers who like to have fun. We typically use the lines provided by 5Dimes. No, we don’t get paid by them, they just have the most available options for UFC and MMA.

UFC 208: Holly Holm vs. Germaine de Randamie

Some of the lines have moved since Episode 63 on Tuesday

Plays of the card:

Silva/Brunson does not go to decision -205
Jacare/Boetsch does not go to decision -450 (this is worth the value)
(If -450 is too much for you, under 1.5 rounds -155 could be a play)

Good Value:

Silva by TKO/KO +240
Jacare inside the distance -250

Possible plays:

Holly Holm +115
Holm/de Randamie under 4.5 rounds +117
(Basing this on de Randamie pushing the pace)
Anderson Silva +135
Glover/Cannonier under 1.5 rounds -110
Brown/Muhammad does not go to decision +120
Sasaki/Reis does not go to decision -125
(Sasaki’s last decision was 10 fights ago)

Possible underdog plays:

Ian McCall +115
Nik Lentz +255
Jim Miller +355
Roan Carneiro +290

 

UFC on Fox 23: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Julianna Pena

Great Values:

Da Silva vs. Johnson do not go the distance -195
Cerrone -150
Arlovski/Ngannou under 1.5 -200
For Pena/Shevchenko, bet whoever you can get above +125

Other Plays:

Pena/Shevchenko over 4.5 rounds -165
Cerrone/Masvidal won’t go distance +155
Sterling +120
Arlovski about +300 is a decent underdog play
If you bet either Arlovski/Ngannou, do it inside the distance
Caceres +130, could push it to Caceres by decision +200
Caceres/Knight goes to decision -195

UFC 207: Ronda Rousey vs. Amanda Nunes

The NEW Sweet Science Lock of the Season: Rousey/Nunes does not start round 3 (-345)

Great Values:

Rousey/Nunes ends in 1st round -158
Cruz/Garbrandt does not go to a decision -145
Dominick Cruz by TKO/KO +500

Other Plays:

If you want Rousey or Nunes, take the one you want -inside the distance-

Rousey -140 moves to (inside distance -112)
Nunes +120 moves to (inside distance +140)

Dominick Cruz -210
If you want Cody Garbrandt, instead of +180, take him at TKO/KO +250
Lineker/Dillashaw over 2.5 rounds -210
John Lineker +200
John Lineker by decision +650
Dong Hyun Kim -145
Kim/Saffiedine over 2.5 rounds -170

Smart Parlays, Party Parlays, and Big Lottery Parlays are discussed on Podcast. 

UFC on FOX 22: Paige VanZant vs. Michelle Waterson

Play of the Card: Jouban/Perry does not go the distance -280

Great Values:

Sage Northcutt vs. Mickey Gall does not go the distance -350
Paige VanZant vs. Michelle Waterson under 4.5 rounds +140
Bryan Barberena to beat Colby Covington +310

UFC 206: Max Holloway vs. Anthony Pettis

Play of the Card: Krylov/Cirkunov does not go the distance -350

Best Plays:

Nikita Krylov vs. Misha Cirkunov: Under 1.5 rounds -135
Holloway vs. Pettis: Over 2.5 round -225
Donald Cerrone vs. Matt Brown: Fight doesn’t go to a decision -135
Tim Kennedy vs. Kelvin Gastelum: Fight goes to decision -175
Tim Kennedy wins by decision +175

Great Value:

Anthony Pettis by decision +450
Cub Swanson +200
Tim Kennedy -160

Party Parlays (When everyone at a party can throw a small amount on an get a high return):

Smart:  Pettis by decision + Cerrone inside distance = 10-1
Traditional: 
Pettis by decision + Cerrone inside distance + Kennedy by decision = 30-1
Big Lottery: Pettis by decision + Cerrone inside distance + Kennedy by decision + Swanson by decision = 172-1

UFC 205: Conor McGregor vs. Eddie Alvarez

The NEW Sweet Science Lock of the Season: 

Conor McGregor vs. Eddie Alvarez does NOT go to a decision (-260)

Our Recommendation (Strong):

Woodley by TKO/KO +335
Joanna Jedrzejczyk by decision -118 (Joanna is too much at -410)
Combination Play:
Yoel Romero by TKO/KO +330
Chris Weidman by TKO/KO +350
(Yes, you are reading that correctly)
Miesha Tate vs. Raquel Pennington goes to a decision -175
Khabib vs. Michael Johnson goes to a decision -125

Additional Recommendations:

Combination:
Frankie Edgar wins a decision -124
Jeremy Stephens by TKO/KO +505
Michael Johnson +240
If you want Khabib, take him by decision +125
If you want Conor McGregor, take him by TKO/KO +129
Tyron Woodley +170

Some Value:

Yoel Romero to win in 3rd round +1025

Parlays:

Smart: Tyron Woodley + Eddie Alvarez = 5.35 to 1

Party Parlay and Big Lottery Parlays are off, due to Cerrone/Gastelum cancellation.

Betting on UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson

Cousin Frank’s Lock of the Season: 

Bisping (-235) to beat Dan Henderson (+215)

Our Recommendation (Strong):

-Bisping vs. Henderson does not go to a decision (-265) [Feel comfortable with anything under -500. ]

Additional Recommendations:

-Belfort vs. Mousasi under 1.5 rounds (-135)
-OSP vs. Manuwa under 1.5 rounds (-150)

Some Value:

-Dan Henderson by TKO/KO (+315)
-If you have to bet the OSP vs. Manuwa fight, take OSP (-160), possibly OSP by TKO/KO (+125)
-If you want Bisping, but don’t want (-235), consider Bisping TKO/KO (-106)

Betting on UFC Fight Night 96: Lineker vs. Dodson

Our recommendation:

Combination Play:
Lineker (+105)
Dodson by TKO/KO (+320)
These type of plays are further explained on the podcast episode.

Some high-value underdog options:

Dodson by TKO/KO (+320)
Lineker by decision (+700)
Dodson to win in 1st round  (+625)

Betting on UFC Fight Night 95: Cyborg vs. Lansberg

Our recommendation:

Nelson vs. Silva does not go to a decision (-600)
(We know it is such a big minus, but there is true value there. Bet $300 and win yourself $50)

If that is too much for you, play:

Roy Nelson inside of distance (-285)
You can combine it with Antonio Silva inside distance (+507) to minimize losses

Cyborg under 1.5 round (-350)

Barao vs. Nover goes to decision (-130)

Betting on UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem

Our Recommendation:

CM Punk vs. Mickey Gall Under 1.5 rounds (-190)
Bet $190 right now

Overeem vs. Miocic do not go the distance (-485)
If you have $485 laying around in the corner, bet it.

Combination play:
Miocic inside the distance +100
Overeem by TKO/KO +200
Bet $100 on Miocic and $50 on Overeem and you will win $50 or $0

Combination Play:

Fabricio Werdum (-210)
Travis Browne by TKO/KO (+260)

Combination Play:

Mickey Gall inside the distance (-282)
CM Punk by submission (+1000)

Uriah Faber (+115) to beat Jimmie Rivera (-135)

Underdog plays to consider:

Browne by TKO/KO (+260)
Overeem by TKO/KO (+200)

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